Insights

Notes on markets, money, and the long view. The Weekly Update from Anton, plus press, and the occasional essay.

Weekly Update

The Benefit of Bad News

During every bull market, there is no shortage of commentators predicting the imminent end of the rally. These bearish forecasts often receive significant media attention.

Anton BayerJune 2, 20267 min read

Weekly Update

How Productive are Countries?

The United States, while ranking third in population, generates nearly twice the annual GDP of both China and the Eurozone.

Anton BayerMarch 4, 20264 min read

Weekly Update

The Bipolar Stock Market

As a lifelong investor and portfolio manager for the past 28 years, I can confidently say the stock market has bipolar disorder.

Anton BayerFebruary 18, 20267 min read

Weekly Update

Small Business Owners and Consumers Slow Sentiment Improvement

Over the past three days, we’ve received reports on the state of consumer sentiment and small business confidence. The results show that both groups are slowly becoming more optimistic about the future, though improvemen

Anton BayerFebruary 11, 20268 min read

Weekly Update

Santa Claus Happy with Wall Street

Several years ago, Simon Maierhofer, editor and founder of iSpy ETF Newsletter, introduced me to a combination of three barometers that have had interesting results in predicting the future S&P 500 performance of the new

Anton BayerFebruary 4, 20265 min read

Weekly Update

Consumers Depressed But Still Spending

Since 1972, the University of Michigan has surveyed approximately 1,000 households each month to produce its Consumer Sentiment Index. The index ranges from 0, representing extreme pessimism, to 110, reflecting peak opti

Anton BayerJanuary 28, 20266 min read

Weekly Update

Gold and Silver

Last year, we began adding gold and silver mining companies to the Up Capital Model portfolios. I give credit to the client, Annie Alexander, who first introduced the idea of miner stocks to me early in 2025 as a develop

Anton BayerJanuary 21, 20266 min read

2025

Weekly Update

Are Interest Rates the Only Issue for Housing?

If you have been trying to sell your home or residential rental property, you are very aware of the small smattering of buyers. This past April had the fewest homes sold in April since 2008. Persistent high mortgage inte

Anton BayerJuly 2, 20255 min read

Weekly Update

Can You Really Retire?

Almost every day we have conversations with clients and friends about their concerns about having enough money to enjoy retirement. I mean truly enjoying all the years after retiring without watching budgets and constant

Anton BayerJune 25, 20257 min read

Weekly Update

Inflation and the Future of Prices

In 2022, the Federal Reserve was hyper-focused on the rapidly rising costs of goods and services. After trillions of dollars were floated into the economy in the years following 2020 to augment the impact of government p

Anton BayerJune 17, 20256 min read

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