At the beginning of summer, major media wonks latched onto the slowing of the manufacturing index as evidence of a looming economic slowdown. Then the 10-Year Treasury yield dropped below that of the 2-Year Treasury, allegedly a harbinger indicator (it’s […]
The US S&P 500 peaked on July 26 for a YTD return of 20.7%. Since then it has shuttered slowly, shedding nearly 20% of the gain after constant drumming by the media’s claims of an imminent recession, threats of tariff […]
Sargent Friday in the TV series Dragnet (1951 – 1957 and 1967 – 1970), played by Jack Webb, was a deadpanned detective that regularly cut off witness’ explanation once they steered away from facts to their own opinion. Sargent Friday, […]
Over the last two weeks, the major indices finally recovered from six-weeks of consecutive declines. Last week the indices struggled to end in positive territory despite growing concerns about trade tariffs and the outcome of this week’s FOMC Federal Reserve […]
On Friday, March 22nd, the 90-Day Treasury Yield briefly rose higher than the 10-Year Treasury Yield for the first time since 2007, a movement that has preceded the last seven US recessions. Due to the nature of this movement typically […]
Predicting a recession is hard. Let’s pretend you and I are headed to lunch, and we can’t decide where to eat, what do we do? We choose to flip a coin, heads we go to a salad bar, tails we […]
