Melting Recession Worries

The pace of growth for the last two quarters of 2022 increased at pre-pandemic levels, in which the GDP gained momentum in the second half of 2022 and recovered all the declines of the first half to end the year with an overall positive gain.

I could almost, mind you almost, hear the disappointment from the media elite and analysts as their predictions of doom seemed to be melting like the wicked witch of the Wizard of Oz. Almost immediately after Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced the beginning of a rate hike policy in March 2022 to slow inflation and prevent another economic crisis, the media, and analysts began a seemingly orchestrated message of woes that the US economy was doomed. Not sure what motivated the messaging or if politics were somehow involved (was there a mid-term election last year?), but the comments were consistent in that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had incorrectly assessed the state of the economy. They opined that businesses and consumers were teetering on collapse and did not have the financial resources or capabilities to absorb higher costs of debt.

Ironically, there didn’t seem to be any commentary on what would happen if the Federal Reserve didn’t start raising interest rates. Already were signs of a potential economic collapse, with housing prices already soaring due to sub-3 % fixed mortgage rates, governments printing money like drunken sailors, and businesses leveraging growth with low-cost debt. The runaway train of cheap money chasing to view goods prompts inflation not seen since the 1970s simply due to the trillions of government-issued money floating throughout our economy. The Federal Reserve can’t stop the government from printing money and handing it out to almost everyone (I hope you got some); it can raise the cost of new debt in an attempt to slow spending.

So how did it work out? Well, so far, and thankfully, the media and analysts underestimated the resilience of the US economy and specifically small businesses (defined as those with 500 or fewer employees). As a reminder, small businesses represented 99.9% of all businesses in America, despite 80% of small businesses having no employees, representing 46.5% of all new hires in 2022. In other words, 20% of small businesses provide almost the same amount of new job opportunities as ALL other companies, Federal and state government, and non-profits combined. During 2022, the unemployment rate declined, and in January notched down again and to the lowest level since 1969, and more people are working in the history of America. This surely does not feel like a recession.

The flow of paychecks, not government subsidies, is the backbone of sustainable economic growth as inspired employees look for ways to invest or spend their earnings. Jerome Powell and his committee correctly assessed that interest rates were too low, and the economy had the reserves to absorb rising debt costs that were well below historical averages.

However, there were casualties to the rapid rise of the Federal Discount rate from 0% – 0.25% to the current 4.5% to 4.75%. The bond market experienced declines and volatility not seen since the 1970s. Bond prices adjust opposite to interest rates (rates rise and bond prices decline). The aggressive rate hike policy sent bond prices plummeting, with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) dropping 32.8% in 2022, matching the decline of the NASDAQ.