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Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Today, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released for February. We monitor this economic indicator on consumers and their views of the economy as it provides us with potential insight into the future of consumer...

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

The media knows that bad news sells better than good news. Even if the bad news is, at best, a speculation with little supporting evidence. A case in point is the relentless storyline in 2021 and 2022 of a pending recession if the...

Thursday, February 15, 2024

This year, there are more people turning 65 years old in America than at any other time in history. Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, are now between the ages of 60 and 78, and they are turning 65 at a rate of 11,300 per...

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Since most people reading this Brief are employed or are employers themselves, watching the Monster.com reports is probably not a top priority. However, the labor market is a key focus for the Federal Reserve as it influences their...

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Several years ago, Simon Maierhofer, editor and founder of iSpy ETF Newsletter, introduced me to a combination of three barometers that have had interesting results in predicting the future S&P 500 performance of the new year. These...

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Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Understandably, American sentiment plummeted during the coronavirus worldwide infestation. Consumer sentiment improved in 2021 as more information about the virus became available, along with the slow and inconsistent relaxing of...

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

It’s officially the part of the new year where you are no longer allowed to tell people “Happy New Year!” but we’ve barely eclipsed the first half of January. The paint is still drying on 2023 but that’s...

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

As we reported, for most of last year, we had anticipated the US stock market to recover from its selloff that began on July 28. The media speculated that the selloff was ending a short-lived rally and entering a bear market downtrend...

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Yesterday was Christmas, and it seems like it was yesterday already. We are fortunate to have seven of our ten grandkids living close to us. As a result, we had a full house with all-day activities with kids and adults that concluded...

Wednesday, December 20, 2023

CNBC reported today that consumers are spending more this year than in recorded history. Based on a survey conducted by CNBC, Consumers have increased their holiday spending by 31% over 2022 based on their survey. The average...

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

For years now, I have enjoyed taking people flying and introducing the peaceful, miraculous experience of flight. However, from the moment I take off, I think principally of one key aspect of the flight, and that is the landing. My...

Wednesday, December 6, 2023

The seasonal increase in job openings is typically a great time for students and entry-level workers to get jobs with short-term income opportunities. Unfortunately for most businesses, finding qualified employees has been a challenge...

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

The U.S. stock market, often a measure of economic health, has shown a noteworthy uptick just in time for Thanksgiving gratitude. The S&P 500 index, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has increased by 2.2% in the past week. More...

Thursday, November 16, 2023

Now that Halloween is over, the winter holidays have officially started. Although Home Depot, Walmart, Target, Lowes, and every other box store thought the Christmas season started in August. When I was a kid, Halloween was always a...

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Last week, the major indices had their best week this year, with the major indices rising from 4.6% to 6.77%. Below is a chart of the returns of the indices last week: Notice that for the first time this year in a weekly period, SP...

Wednesday, November 1, 2023

The stock market is always moving as investors adjust their portfolios to their perspective of the economy and their stock holdings. The result is the actual value of stocks is rarely held as prices fluctuate above and below the...

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

There is a peculiar relationship between investors, economic news, and the major media. Investors are trying to predict the future of the stock market based on economic...

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its August report surveying small business owners on their views of their business and the economy. The NFIB index reading came in a little below the previous month at 90...

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

It seems the scammers are out in greater force than ever. More alarming is their increasing success in scamming honest people out of their hard-earned money. As a result, I wanted to share with you many True Stories of scams to...

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

It appears investors are increasing their caution in buying stocks since the major indices peaked for the year high on July 31. Today's decline of the S&P 500 puts the index just 0.1% above its 200 Day Moving Average (DMA), a typical...

Wednesday, September 20, 2023

It would seem logical to anticipate a close correlation between consumer spending and stock market sentiment. As consumers increase their spending, and especially wealthy consumers, the stock market would presumably rally. The...

Wednesday, September 13, 2023

One year ago, on September 9, 2022, I was in a horrific private plane crash. No, I wasn’t the pilot, nor did I own the plane. The plane was totaled, and amazingly, my friend, the pilot, and I both survived with slight injuries....

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Consumer spending is the economic engine for the US economy and they appear to be in good shape. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending has increased 0.8% year over year in July and above expectation of 0.7%.

Wednesday, August 30, 2023

If it feels like the financial markets are lurching from news event to news event in recent weeks, you're right. They are. After a strong first half, investors are wondering if the good times are over or if the positive momentum of...

Wednesday, August 23, 2023

The 2020 pandemic set off a tsunami of labor disruptions and massive reshuffling of the employment market. First, government officials around the nation in 2020 followed health agencies' direction by passing mandates for nearly all...

Thursday, August 17, 2023

Good News! Stock Market Rally Finally Stalls This rally, since the start of the year, has been given many names. The most consistent is the “Rally Everyone Hates.” The primary reason is last year’s doom-sayers...

Wednesday, August 9, 2023

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) issued yesterday their monthly report based on a survey among small business owners. The chart from this report illustrates the roller coaster of emotions among business owners...

Wednesday, August 2, 2023

Thinking about Christmas may be a bit early for you, but not for retailers. Executives of all businesses that depend on consumer spending are deep in preparation for this holiday season. These executives are evaluating the prospects...

Wednesday, July 26, 2023

trong growth in equity markets, lower inflation, and Fed's rate hike highlight importance of long-term investing. Stay disciplined, diversify, and seek advice to maximize returns.

Wednesday, July 19, 2023

Biden's SECURE 2.0 enhances retirement savings yet poses double taxation risks. Discover how this impacts your 401(k) and retirement plans in our Weekly Brief.

Wednesday, July 12, 2023

In advance of 2023, the recession drum beats were so loud it was deafening. Market pundits warned that as the Fed raised interest rates, it was just a matter of time before the economy entered a recession.But it’s July now, and...

Friday, June 30, 2023

The economy continues to roll on with strong consumer spending leading the charge. Read in this Weekly Brief our view on the economy and stock market along with forecasts for the second half of 2023.

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Stocks climbed last week as reassuring inflation data boosted investor hopes that the rate-hike cycle was nearing an end amid fresh economic data pointing to continued economic resilience.The Dow Jones...

Thursday, June 15, 2023

In sports there are the subjective analysts and then those that take a technical approach to evaluate a team’s potential.  On a subjective basis, the analyst would focus on attitude, team spirit...

Tuesday, June 6, 2023

Anton just returned from 10 days in Israel. In this Weekly Brief, he outlines his experiences in the Holy Land and what he learned touring the ancient ruins and other key sites from Israel’s history. Spoiler alert, America is a great coun

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

While political uncertainty persists, a handful of companies are driving the market's success, while others struggle. Investors should manage expectations and prioritize a diversified portfolio.

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report reveals a significant drop in consumer confidence, even below 2008 crisis levels. Despite this, the Federal Reserve reportedly welcomes the findings.

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Since Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, announced early 2022 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike campaign to slow inflation, analysts have predicted a recession in 2023. Recessions do not suddenly sneak up on...

Thursday, April 27, 2023

Throughout my life I have benefited from people with more experience and knowledge who have been generous to share what they have learned so my learning curve may be steeper with less setbacks due to mistakes.  Learning from...

Wednesday, April 19, 2023

The Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were in a real bind in 2020.  They recognize the danger of ultra-low interest rates leading to hyperinflation.  However, the coronavirus pandemic superseded...

Wednesday, April 12, 2023

 I trust you had a pleasant Easter weekend having time with family or friends. This weekend we had our three adult children, their spouses, and their 10 children all together for the first time in ten years. The last time we were...

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

The economic reports of the past several days indicate a slowing economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The Federal Reserve's quick response early last year with their rate hike campaign appears to have thwarted an...

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

One indicator to watch to assess the economy's health is by monitoring inventories. Business owners and sales and purchasing managers are watching their business and customer activities to forecast how much inventory they need to meet...

Thursday, March 23, 2023

Last week the University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index for March, which dropped for the first time in four months. This report comes before any recent news about the banking industry, and I would expect the next...

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

It was an extraordinary experience for the years we lived in Cupertino, AKA Silicon Valley. During the late 1990s, neighbors were becoming millionaires and some billionaires overnight when their companies had an Initial Public Offering...

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

On Monday, the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Released its monthly U.S. Factory Orders report. New orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) in January after a 1.7% rise in December. This...

Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Last week the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Q4 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The economy, after two-quarters of contraction in Q1 and Q2 2022, recovered with economic growth in the remaining two quarters of...

Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Analysts predicted a rough economic landing in 2023, partly due to the Federal Reserve's rate hike policy. However, the Fed's assessment was more precise than expected. This Brief examines the chances of a gentle landing or no landing at al

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

US economy will recover like spring after winter. Past challenges prove its resilience. Weekly Brief & podcast discuss history and future growth trends.

Wednesday, February 1, 2023

There are many benefits of being at the bottom of a market cycle vs. at the top. At the top, when economic and stock market conditions are so favorable that it starts to get scary. One cannot stop wondering when these good times end. I...

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Investors have been on pause since early 2022 with their new investments to determine when the Federal Reserve rate hikes will cease. More importantly, they are concerned that higher interest rates will drive the US economy into a...

Wednesday, January 18, 2023

It's a new year and a good time to start planning and taking steps towards your goals. This article shares lessons learned on the SEC Football field that helped to outsmart Nick Saban, the coach of Alabama's team.

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

In February 2018, Jerome Powell took office as the 16th Chairman of The Federal Reserve. He had a goal to improve the Fed's communication with the investment marketplace. Starting in January 2019, he began holding press conferences...

Wednesday, January 4, 2023

By any standard, the past three years were historic. It reminded me of the tech bubble that burst from 2000 to 2003, with San Jose’s Silicon Valley as the epic center. You had to live there to truly understand the financial...

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

2022, or as I like to refer to it, “the year of three two's,” is finally coming to a close. Families across the world are getting together to celebrate the holidays, which means that the final scramble to finish shopping...

Wednesday, December 14, 2022

The saying “Don't Fight The Feds,” or DFTF for short, has been the theme this year on Wall Street. Since March 16, when the Federal Reserve embarked on its rate hike policy, the stock market has plummeted. Mortgage interest...

Tuesday, December 6, 2022

Despite all the challenges going on around the world, the US economic engine continues to chug forward. The Group of 7 Nations (referred to as G7 nations, which were formerly G8 until Russia was expelled in 2014) references the...

Wednesday, November 30, 2022

For decades the market has correlated closely with consumer sentiment. As people reported less optimism resulting in lower readings of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, stock market indices would also decline. An...

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

I thought I would take a break from the exciting world of finance to focus on Thanksgiving and the many blessings we have.It is nothing short of a miracle of winning the gene pool lottery to have been born in America. Most people...

Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Over the past 30 years, I have been fascinated by watching the many actors in our financial markets. I say actors because it all seems like one big national play complete with all the theatrical variety of comedy, thriller, suspense,...

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

     The tsunami impact of shutting down the US, the world's largest economic engine, for nearly nine months in 2020, and in some cities' continual restrictions, has understandably created a tsunami wave of financial...

Wednesday, November 2, 2022

     Now that Halloween is over, the holidays are officially started. Although Home Depot, Walmart, Target, Lowes, and every other box store thought the Christmas season started in August.When I was a kid, Halloween was...

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

    A few weeks ago I was rereading Joe Coulombe’s autobiography, Becoming Trader Joe: How I Did Business My Way and Still Beat the Big Guys, when I came across this quote: “Risk management,” you...