Blog
Consumers Spending And Investors Sentiment
It would seem logical to anticipate a close correlation between consumer spending and stock market sentiment. As consumers increase their spending, and especially wealthy consumers, the stock market would presumably rally. The...
Read More
Overcoming Tragedy
One year ago, on September 9, 2022, I was in a horrific private plane crash. No, I wasn’t the pilot, nor did I own the plane. The plane was totaled, and amazingly, my friend, the pilot, and I both survived with slight injuries....
Read More
Consumer Engine Still Strong
Consumer spending is the economic engine for the US economy and they appear to be in good shape. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending has increased 0.8% year over year in July and above expectation of 0.7%.
Read More
Investors Holding Their Breath
If it feels like the financial markets are lurching from news event to news event in recent weeks, you're right. They are. After a strong first half, investors are wondering if the good times are over or if the positive momentum of...
Read More
NO HELP WANTED
The 2020 pandemic set off a tsunami of labor disruptions and massive reshuffling of the employment market. First, government officials around the nation in 2020 followed health agencies' direction by passing mandates for nearly all...
Read MoreShow All
Good News! Stock Market Rally Finally Stalls
Good News! Stock Market Rally Finally Stalls This rally, since the start of the year, has been given many names. The most consistent is the “Rally Everyone Hates.” The primary reason is last year’s doom-sayers...
Read More
Small Business Owners Still Concerned About The Future
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) issued yesterday their monthly report based on a survey among small business owners. The chart from this report illustrates the roller coaster of emotions among business owners...
Read More
Merry Christmas And Happy New Year!
Thinking about Christmas may be a bit early for you, but not for retailers. Executives of all businesses that depend on consumer spending are deep in preparation for this holiday season. These executives are evaluating the prospects...
Read More
Financial Resilience Near Market Highs And Interest Rate Shifts
trong growth in equity markets, lower inflation, and Fed's rate hike highlight importance of long-term investing. Stay disciplined, diversify, and seek advice to maximize returns.
Read More
The Disappearing 401K Plan
Biden's SECURE 2.0 enhances retirement savings yet poses double taxation risks. Discover how this impacts your 401(k) and retirement plans in our Weekly Brief.
Read More
Was There Supposed to Be a Recession?
In advance of 2023, the recession drum beats were so loud it was deafening. Market pundits warned that as the Fed raised interest rates, it was just a matter of time before the economy entered a recession.But it’s July now, and...
Read More
Consumer Driven Economy Powers On
The economy continues to roll on with strong consumer spending leading the charge. Read in this Weekly Brief our view on the economy and stock market along with forecasts for the second half of 2023.
Read More
Investors Find Hope as Stock Market Rallies on Positive Inflation Data
Stocks climbed last week as reassuring inflation data boosted investor hopes that the rate-hike cycle was nearing an end amid fresh economic data pointing to continued economic resilience.The Dow Jones...
Read More
Stock Market Insights: Balancing Subjective vs Technical analysis
In sports there are the subjective analysts and then those that take a technical approach to evaluate a team’s potential. On a subjective basis, the analyst would focus on attitude, team spirit...
Read More
A Decade-Long Dream Realized: A Financial Advisor's Pilgrimage to Israel
Anton just returned from 10 days in Israel. In this Weekly Brief, he outlines his experiences in the Holy Land and what he learned touring the ancient ruins and other key sites from Israel’s history. Spoiler alert, America is a great coun
Read More
Cracking the Code: Why is the Stock Market Thriving Amidst Debt-Ceiling Uncertainty?
While political uncertainty persists, a handful of companies are driving the market's success, while others struggle. Investors should manage expectations and prioritize a diversified portfolio.
Read MoreConsumers Concerned, Feds Happy
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report reveals a significant drop in consumer confidence, even below 2008 crisis levels. Despite this, the Federal Reserve reportedly welcomes the findings.
Read More
Timing is Everything, or Is It?
Since Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, announced early 2022 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike campaign to slow inflation, analysts have predicted a recession in 2023. Recessions do not suddenly sneak up on...
Read More
Is US in Recovery or Heading into a Recession?
The Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were in a real bind in 2020. They recognize the danger of ultra-low interest rates leading to hyperinflation. However, the coronavirus pandemic superseded...
Read More
Small Business Owners Still in Recovery Mode
I trust you had a pleasant Easter weekend having time with family or friends. This weekend we had our three adult children, their spouses, and their 10 children all together for the first time in ten years. The last time we were...
Read More
Slowing and Growing
The economic reports of the past several days indicate a slowing economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The Federal Reserve's quick response early last year with their rate hike campaign appears to have thwarted an...
Read More
Business Inventories Running Low
One indicator to watch to assess the economy's health is by monitoring inventories. Business owners and sales and purchasing managers are watching their business and customer activities to forecast how much inventory they need to meet...
Read More
Consumers Emotion Out of Sync to their Spending
Last week the University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index for March, which dropped for the first time in four months. This report comes before any recent news about the banking industry, and I would expect the next...
Read More
Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse
It was an extraordinary experience for the years we lived in Cupertino, AKA Silicon Valley. During the late 1990s, neighbors were becoming millionaires and some billionaires overnight when their companies had an Initial Public Offering...
Read More
Factory Orders are Rising
On Monday, the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Released its monthly U.S. Factory Orders report. New orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) in January after a 1.7% rise in December. This...
Read More
Melting Recession Worries
Last week the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Q4 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The economy, after two-quarters of contraction in Q1 and Q2 2022, recovered with economic growth in the remaining two quarters of...
Read More
Economic Landing Zone
Analysts predicted a rough economic landing in 2023, partly due to the Federal Reserve's rate hike policy. However, the Fed's assessment was more precise than expected. This Brief examines the chances of a gentle landing or no landing at al
Read More
After the Storm
US economy will recover like spring after winter. Past challenges prove its resilience. Weekly Brief & podcast discuss history and future growth trends.
Read MoreBenefits at the Bottom
There are many benefits of being at the bottom of a market cycle vs. at the top. At the top, when economic and stock market conditions are so favorable that it starts to get scary. One cannot stop wondering when these good times end. I...
Read More
US Soft Landing
Investors have been on pause since early 2022 with their new investments to determine when the Federal Reserve rate hikes will cease. More importantly, they are concerned that higher interest rates will drive the US economy into a...
Read More
Planning to Win
It's a new year and a good time to start planning and taking steps towards your goals. This article shares lessons learned on the SEC Football field that helped to outsmart Nick Saban, the coach of Alabama's team.
Read More
Listen to the Fed's
In February 2018, Jerome Powell took office as the 16th Chairman of The Federal Reserve. He had a goal to improve the Fed's communication with the investment marketplace. Starting in January 2019, he began holding press conferences...
Read MoreNew Year, New Start
By any standard, the past three years were historic. It reminded me of the tech bubble that burst from 2000 to 2003, with San Jose’s Silicon Valley as the epic center. You had to live there to truly understand the financial...
Read MoreNot Another Holiday Checklist!
2022, or as I like to refer to it, “the year of three two's,” is finally coming to a close. Families across the world are getting together to celebrate the holidays, which means that the final scramble to finish shopping...
Read MoreDon’t Fight The Feds
The saying “Don't Fight The Feds,” or DFTF for short, has been the theme this year on Wall Street. Since March 16, when the Federal Reserve embarked on its rate hike policy, the stock market has plummeted. Mortgage interest...
Read MoreUS Economic Engine Chugs On
Despite all the challenges going on around the world, the US economic engine continues to chug forward. The Group of 7 Nations (referred to as G7 nations, which were formerly G8 until Russia was expelled in 2014) references the...
Read MoreSentiment vs Market
For decades the market has correlated closely with consumer sentiment. As people reported less optimism resulting in lower readings of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, stock market indices would also decline. An...
Read MoreActors of our Financial Theater
Over the past 30 years, I have been fascinated by watching the many actors in our financial markets. I say actors because it all seems like one big national play complete with all the theatrical variety of comedy, thriller, suspense,...
Read MoreRebalancing The US Economy
The tsunami impact of shutting down the US, the world's largest economic engine, for nearly nine months in 2020, and in some cities' continual restrictions, has understandably created a tsunami wave of financial...
Read MoreRisk Management, You Say – Main
A few weeks ago I was rereading Joe Coulombe’s autobiography, Becoming Trader Joe: How I Did Business My Way and Still Beat the Big Guys, when I came across this quote: “Risk management,” you...
Read More