Blog
Consumers Concerned, Feds Happy
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report reveals a significant drop in consumer confidence, even below 2008 crisis levels. Despite this, the Federal Reserve reportedly welcomes the findings.
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Timing is Everything, or Is It?
Since Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, announced early 2022 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike campaign to slow inflation, analysts have predicted a recession in 2023. Recessions do not suddenly sneak up on...
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Is US in Recovery or Heading into a Recession?
The Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were in a real bind in 2020. They recognize the danger of ultra-low interest rates leading to hyperinflation. However, the coronavirus pandemic superseded...
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Small Business Owners Still in Recovery Mode
I trust you had a pleasant Easter weekend having time with family or friends. This weekend we had our three adult children, their spouses, and their 10 children all together for the first time in ten years. The last time we were...
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Slowing and Growing
The economic reports of the past several days indicate a slowing economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The Federal Reserve's quick response early last year with their rate hike campaign appears to have thwarted an...
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Business Inventories Running Low
One indicator to watch to assess the economy's health is by monitoring inventories. Business owners and sales and purchasing managers are watching their business and customer activities to forecast how much inventory they need to meet...
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Consumers Emotion Out of Sync to their Spending
Last week the University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index for March, which dropped for the first time in four months. This report comes before any recent news about the banking industry, and I would expect the next...
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Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse
It was an extraordinary experience for the years we lived in Cupertino, AKA Silicon Valley. During the late 1990s, neighbors were becoming millionaires and some billionaires overnight when their companies had an Initial Public Offering...
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Factory Orders are Rising
On Monday, the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Released its monthly U.S. Factory Orders report. New orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) in January after a 1.7% rise in December. This...
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Melting Recession Worries
Last week the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Q4 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The economy, after two-quarters of contraction in Q1 and Q2 2022, recovered with economic growth in the remaining two quarters of...
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Economic Landing Zone
Analysts predicted a rough economic landing in 2023, partly due to the Federal Reserve's rate hike policy. However, the Fed's assessment was more precise than expected. This Brief examines the chances of a gentle landing or no landing at al
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After the Storm
US economy will recover like spring after winter. Past challenges prove its resilience. Weekly Brief & podcast discuss history and future growth trends.
Read MoreBenefits at the Bottom
There are many benefits of being at the bottom of a market cycle vs. at the top. At the top, when economic and stock market conditions are so favorable that it starts to get scary. One cannot stop wondering when these good times end. I...
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US Soft Landing
Investors have been on pause since early 2022 with their new investments to determine when the Federal Reserve rate hikes will cease. More importantly, they are concerned that higher interest rates will drive the US economy into a...
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Planning to Win
It's a new year and a good time to start planning and taking steps towards your goals. This article shares lessons learned on the SEC Football field that helped to outsmart Nick Saban, the coach of Alabama's team.
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Listen to the Fed's
In February 2018, Jerome Powell took office as the 16th Chairman of The Federal Reserve. He had a goal to improve the Fed's communication with the investment marketplace. Starting in January 2019, he began holding press conferences...
Read MoreNew Year, New Start
By any standard, the past three years were historic. It reminded me of the tech bubble that burst from 2000 to 2003, with San Jose’s Silicon Valley as the epic center. You had to live there to truly understand the financial...
Read MoreNot Another Holiday Checklist!
2022, or as I like to refer to it, “the year of three two's,” is finally coming to a close. Families across the world are getting together to celebrate the holidays, which means that the final scramble to finish shopping...
Read MoreDon’t Fight The Feds
The saying “Don't Fight The Feds,” or DFTF for short, has been the theme this year on Wall Street. Since March 16, when the Federal Reserve embarked on its rate hike policy, the stock market has plummeted. Mortgage interest...
Read MoreUS Economic Engine Chugs On
Despite all the challenges going on around the world, the US economic engine continues to chug forward. The Group of 7 Nations (referred to as G7 nations, which were formerly G8 until Russia was expelled in 2014) references the...
Read MoreSentiment vs Market
For decades the market has correlated closely with consumer sentiment. As people reported less optimism resulting in lower readings of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, stock market indices would also decline. An...
Read MoreActors of our Financial Theater
Over the past 30 years, I have been fascinated by watching the many actors in our financial markets. I say actors because it all seems like one big national play complete with all the theatrical variety of comedy, thriller, suspense,...
Read MoreRebalancing The US Economy
The tsunami impact of shutting down the US, the world's largest economic engine, for nearly nine months in 2020, and in some cities' continual restrictions, has understandably created a tsunami wave of financial...
Read MoreRisk Management, You Say – Main
A few weeks ago I was rereading Joe Coulombe’s autobiography, Becoming Trader Joe: How I Did Business My Way and Still Beat the Big Guys, when I came across this quote: “Risk management,” you...
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